Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 1.832470 1.949204 2.072308 2.212271 2.367565 2.535255 2.730919
2025-11-23 1.655566 1.816001 1.993695 2.206790 2.457687 2.746646 3.109012
2025-11-30 1.554054 1.741074 1.955433 2.222583 2.551390 2.949525 3.478946
2025-12-07 1.453811 1.653882 1.889026 2.190654 2.574782 3.058742 3.734079
2025-12-14 1.361362 1.566997 1.813419 2.136773 2.560026 3.111007 3.911986
2025-12-21 1.297774 1.509875 1.768614 2.115397 2.581285 3.207297 4.155222
2025-12-28 1.262430 1.484680 1.760749 2.138917 2.661021 3.386795 4.536294
2026-01-04 1.216636 1.443157 1.728635 2.126676 2.688726 3.492687 4.816547
2026-01-11 1.190491 1.424980 1.725078 2.151533 2.768672 3.679956 5.248812
2026-01-18 1.157561 1.396020 1.705141 2.151539 2.811290 3.812977 5.607893
2026-01-25 1.141181 1.387786 1.712075 2.188945 2.910928 4.043273 6.172232
2026-02-01 1.100533 1.345241 1.669899 2.152749 2.895026 4.083787 6.390957
2026-02-08 1.058640 1.300545 1.624284 2.111190 2.871192 4.114361 6.607666
2026-02-15 1.031406 1.274836 1.604087 2.106150 2.904795 4.246536 7.054317
2026-02-22 1.012420 1.259538 1.597596 2.120833 2.970623 4.441497 7.673595
2026-03-01 0.981215 1.226036 1.563514 2.091147 2.960335 4.496295 7.991258
2026-03-08 0.945853 1.185548 1.517777 2.041012 2.911942 4.474719 8.125405
2026-03-15 0.921395 1.159628 1.492220 2.021108 2.913689 4.548682 8.508548
2026-03-22 0.910258 1.152133 1.493219 2.043008 2.989212 4.774697 9.337029
2026-03-29 0.890569 1.131724 1.474213 2.031611 3.004516 4.880702 9.872289
2026-04-05 0.881191 1.125797 1.476504 2.054751 3.083637 5.128481 10.892499
2026-04-12 0.866260 1.111298 1.465227 2.054756 3.119789 5.288429 11.702783
2026-04-19 0.860832 1.110454 1.474596 2.089557 3.223921 5.613239 13.190779